The weekly Bitcoin brief · Issue 1 · Oct 10–16, 2026
This week in Bitcoin
Live from free public sources, each with its as-of time
By the numbers
As of Oct 17, 2026, 2:33 PM EDT, refreshed every 15 minutes. Each figure links to its source.
- Blocks to next halving
- 78,104
- Rough estimate: around Mar 2028, at this period's 586s average block time
- mempool.space API, tip height and difficulty adjustment · as of Oct 17, 2026, 2:33 PM EDT
- Lightning public capacityStale
- 3,754 BTC
- 32,518 public channels. Public channels only; private channels are not visible.
- mempool.space Lightning statistics API · last updated Aug 29, 2026, 8:00 PM EDT. The source has not updated in over 14 days.
Not shown: spot ETF flows and exchange balances. The free sources we found either publish no terms allowing reuse (daily ETF flow tables) or sell the data on paid plans (exchange balances), so we leave them out rather than estimate them. Lightning figures count public channels only.
Giovanni Santostasi's model, credited and unaltered
Price vs. the power-law trend
- BTC daily close
- $81,538
- Model trend
- $168,786
- 10−17 × 6,4955.83 (day 6,495)
- Price ÷ trend
- 0.48×
Cheap relative to trend: 10th percentile of past daily price ÷ trend values (bottom third cheap, middle fair, top third expensive). Not a forecast.
Price: Coin Metrics Community daily PriceUSD for Oct 16, 2026 (UTC). 1.00× means price equals the model line.
Chart history: Coin Metrics Community daily prices from Jul 18, 2010, weekly points. Model: Giovanni Santostasi's Bitcoin power law, published as price = A × (days since the genesis block)n with A = 10−17 and n = 5.83, days counted from Jan 3, 2009. His model, not a Cold Hard Sats metric. It describes past prices, is not a forecast, and says nothing about whether to buy or sell. More context and limits on the power-law page.
Santostasi's formula, quoted from the original post: “Estimated Price=A * (days from GB)^n, where GB is Genesis Block, A is 10^-17 and n=5.83”. More context and limits on the power-law page.
Laws, rulings and regulators, with the primary document
Policy & regulation
No policy items met our sourcing bar this issue.
Who is starting to use or hold bitcoin, sourced
Adoption watch
No adoption items met our sourcing bar this issue.
Linked to the original
Quote of the week
“Let us be very clear: there is not a single piece of evidence that Trezor devices have been compromised. This is a preventive step, taken out of an abundance of caution.”
What happened in the week of Oct 10–16 in past years
On this day in Bitcoin
OCT 12, 2009
First known sale of bitcoin for dollars
Martti Malmi sold 5,050 BTC to NewLibertyStandard for $5.02 via PayPal. A week earlier, on Oct 5, 2009, NewLibertyStandard had published an exchange rate of 1,309.03 BTC to $1.
Sources: Bitcoin Institute, “First Bitcoin sale for fiat: Martti Malmi sells 5,050 BTC for $5.02”; Reuters, “Factbox: Ten years of bitcoin” (Oct 31, 2018)
OCT 10, 2025
Bitcoin Core 30.0 released
Bitcoin Core 30.0 is published. Release notes state that -datacarriersize defaults to 100,000 (effectively uncapped given the max transaction size) and that multiple OP_RETURN outputs are permitted; operators can set -datacarriersize=83 to restore the prior limit. The change is policy, not consensus.
OCT 15, 2026
Bitcoin Knots near one-sixth of reachable nodes
On October 15, 2026, bitdis.org (sourcing btcnodes.io and mempool.space) reports Bitcoin Knots at 4,426 of 26,581 known nodes (16.65%), with Bitcoin Core at 22,093 (83.12%). Many Knots operators cite tighter default filters on data-carrying transactions; node-count methods differ across dashboards, so treat figures as estimates for that day's crawl.
One popular scare, calmly checked against the facts
FUD Corner
THE CLAIM
“Quantum computers will steal your bitcoin”
An industry alliance quoted by CoinDesk estimates that 6.4 million BTC, about 30.2% of supply, sit at addresses whose public keys are already exposed, so a powerful enough future quantum computer could derive their private keys. One researcher called 2028 realistic.
THE FACTS
What the same report says
Those coins cannot be stolen this way today, because no existing quantum computer is powerful enough, and researchers disagree on when one might be. The alliance is drafting standards for quantum-resistant upgrades, and proposals for handling vulnerable coins are being debated.
Read moreShow less
It is a long-term engineering problem with warning time, not an emergency for your wallet this week. A good habit regardless: use a fresh receiving address for each payment.
More myths checked on the FUD page.
Threats worth knowing, plus one thing to do
Security Corner
Ledger responds to a hardware implant attack
Ledger says genuine devices were bought, fitted with an implant that records the recovery phrase during setup, and resold through a Southeast Asian retailer. It asked authorized resellers and distributors to suspend sales in Southeast Asia and Hong Kong and reminded partners that returned devices can never be resold.
Read moreShow less
If you bought from the affected seller and already set the device up, move funds to a new device with a new seed.
Sources: Ledger, “Ledger’s Response to the Hardware Implant Attack” (Oct 15, 2026); Decrypt, “Trezor Cuts Its Resellers After Ledger Finds Spy Implant in Crypto Wallets” (Oct 13, 2026)
Fake “Ledger firmware update” phishing
SlowMist warned of a campaign that uses the implant news to push fake firmware-update pages, complete with a fake “Genuine check”, that ask for the recovery phrase. Update firmware only in the maker's official app.
Read moreShow less
No genuine update asks you to type your seed into a website.
Sources: SlowMist (@SlowMist_Team) on X, Oct 16, 2026; The Crypto Times, “Fake Ledger firmware update scam exploits CryptoBilis hack, SlowMist warns” (Oct 16, 2026)
Trezor trims its reseller network
Trezor is ending reseller authorizations on January 1, 2027, and calls it a preventive step, saying there is no evidence Trezor devices have been compromised.
Sources: Trezor (@Trezor) on X, Oct 13, 2026; Decrypt (Oct 13, 2026)
One thing to do this week
One concept explained, plus the term of the week
Technical Corner
The difficulty adjustment
Bitcoin targets one block about every 10 minutes however much mining power joins or leaves. Every 2,016 blocks each node recalculates the difficulty target from how long the previous 2,016 blocks took: harder if they came faster than 10 minutes on average, easier if slower.
Read moreShow less
A single change is limited to a factor of 4 either way. The live numbers for the current period are on the difficulty page.
Term of the week: Difficulty adjustment
News, interview and tutorial picks
Best videos of the week
news
Spy implant found in Ledger Flex bought at Singapore airport
Mark Karpeles · Oct 13, 2026
Examines a Ledger Flex bought at Singapore's airport that he reports contained a spy implant.
Watch on YouTube →
tutorial
Should You Open Your Ledger to Check for Spy Chips?
The CryptoDad · Oct 12, 2026
Whether owners should take their devices apart, what has been confirmed, and how to judge your own risk.
Watch on YouTube →
tutorial
Who Really Controls Bitcoin? Explained
Knightron Crypto · Oct 13, 2026
An eight-minute explainer on who can influence Bitcoin's rules when there is no CEO or central authority.
Watch on YouTube →No interview pick this issue.
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Archive
- Issue 1: week of Oct 10–16, 2026 · published Oct 16, 2026
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