The power-law model

What the model says

A power law has the form price = 10^a × d^b, where d is days since the genesis block. Taking logs on both sides gives log₁₀(price) = a + b·log₁₀(d), a straight line on log-log axes. Harold Christopher Burger popularized this view in 2019, fitting a = −17.016 and b = 5.845 with d counted from January 1, 2009, and describing a corridor between a support line and a line through market tops (Burger, 2019). Physicist Giovanni Santostasi published the same idea as price = A × (days since the genesis block)ⁿ with A = 10⁻¹⁷ and n = 5.83 (Santostasi, Jan 2024); this page and the rest of the site use his published parameters, unaltered, as the single trend line.

Where price sits today

• Model: Giovanni Santostasi's published power law, price = 10⁻¹⁷ × d^5.83, d = days since Jan 3, 2009 (genesis block). We use his parameters as published and do not fit our own (Santostasi, 2024).
• Price data: 5,935 daily closes (PriceUSD) from Coin Metrics Community, Jul 18, 2010 to Oct 16, 2026.
• Latest: Oct 16, 2026 close $81,538 vs trend $168,786, or 0.48× the trend.
• Cheap relative to trend. That ratio is at the 10th percentile of all past daily values. We call the bottom third cheap, the middle third fair and the top third expensive. Those cut-offs are a labeling choice, not part of the model. Not a forecast.
• Shaded range: 95% of past days sat between 0.41× and 6.05× the trend (2.5th to 97.5th percentile). Over the full history the ratio ran from 0.27× to 19.02×.
• Other published versions exist: Burger's 2019 fit (dashed line in the chart) and later refits report different exponents, so the same price can be a different multiple of trend depending on the model chosen.

Limits and criticisms

• A good fit to the past is not evidence of a mechanism. Many growing series look straight on log-log axes over a limited range.
• Results depend on choices: where d starts, which price series, whether the earliest thin-market prices are included, and how points are weighted.
• Lines extended past today are arithmetic, not forecasts. Bitcoin can trade outside any corridor drawn from its history.

About bitcoinfairprice.com

The site exists and offers a power-law fair-price calculator. As of Oct 15, 2026 it names no operator, the domain registration is privacy-protected, and we found no terms of use, data license or public API. Without clear permission to reuse its numbers we did not use it; every line here is computed from the sources listed below.

Related

• Bitcoin's supply schedule
• Inflation tracker
• Market indicators
• Markets