Market indicators

Pi Cycle Top

Measures

Whether short-term price momentum has run far ahead of the long-term trend.

Formula

Signal when the 111-day simple moving average crosses above 2 × the 350-day simple moving average.

Creator

Philip Swift, April 2019 (LookIntoBitcoin; also credited by Glassnode).

Track record

In our own computation the cross fired on Apr 7, 2013, Dec 7, 2013, Dec 17, 2017 and Apr 13, 2021, each close to a local high. It missed the higher November 2021 peak and did not fire at all during the 2024–2025 highs. Three or four hits is a small sample, and the window lengths were chosen after the fact.

Charts

LookIntoBitcoin: Pi Cycle Top

MVRV ratio

Measures

Market value relative to realized value, the aggregate price at which coins last moved on-chain.

Formula

MVRV = market cap ÷ realized cap.

Creator

Murad Mahmudov and David Puell, Oct 1, 2018 (original article).

Track record

The authors identified 3.7 as an overvaluation threshold and 1 as undervaluation from data through September 2018 (same article). Thresholds fitted on past cycles can shift as the market matures.

Charts

LookIntoBitcoin: MVRV Z-Score · Checkonchain charts

MVRV Z-Score

Measures

How many standard deviations market cap sits above realized cap.

Formula

(market cap − realized cap) ÷ standard deviation of market cap.

Creator

Awe & Wonder, October 2018 (Glassnode docs, which link the original post).

Track record

Glassnode notes high readings have historically coincided with tops and low ones with bottoms (docs). The original post's “90%+ accuracy” claim is the author's own, measured on past data.

Charts

LookIntoBitcoin: MVRV Z-Score

200-week moving average

Measures

The long-run average price over roughly four years.

Formula

Simple average of the last 200 weekly (1,400 daily) prices.

Creator

No single verified originator; a standard moving average. Chart: LookIntoBitcoin heatmap.

Track record

Often described as a cycle floor. In our data price traded below it in 2015, briefly in March 2020, for most of mid-2022 to October 2023, and again at times in June–August 2026, so it is not a hard floor.

Charts

LookIntoBitcoin: 200 Week MA Heatmap

Mayer Multiple

Measures

How stretched price is above or below its 200-day average.

Formula

Price ÷ 200-day simple moving average.

Creator

Trace Mayer (CoinDesk, Feb 17, 2019).

Track record

Mayer's simulations found accumulating below 2.4 gave the best long-term results (CoinDesk). In our data it last reached 2.4 in March 2021; the November 2021 and 2024–2025 highs came with much lower readings, so the old threshold did not flag them.

NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

Measures

The share of market cap that is unrealized profit or loss.

Formula

(market cap − realized cap) ÷ market cap.

Creator

Adamant Capital (Tuur Demeester, Tamás Blummer, Michiel Lescrauwaet), February 2019 (original primer).

Track record

Sentiment bands (capitulation to euphoria) are descriptive labels on past cycles; we did not find a verified, dated hit-and-miss record to restate.

Charts

LookIntoBitcoin: Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss · Checkonchain charts

Puell Multiple

Measures

Miner revenue today relative to its yearly average, a proxy for miner selling pressure.

Formula

Daily issuance value in USD ÷ 365-day moving average of daily issuance value.

Creator

David Puell, 2019 (introductory article).

Track record

Each halving cuts issuance in half overnight, which mechanically drops the ratio; readings around halvings need care.

Charts

LookIntoBitcoin: Puell Multiple

Stock-to-Flow (S2F)

Measures

Scarcity: existing supply relative to new annual supply, regressed against price.

Formula

SF = stock ÷ yearly flow; the model fits ln(market value) against ln(SF).

Creator

PlanB, Mar 22, 2019 (original article).

Track record

The article projected about $55,000 after the May 2020 halving, which price exceeded in 2021. The well-documented breakdown came next: on Jun 23, 2021 PlanB wrote “I will call s2f invalidated if we have not reached 100K by Dec this year” (post). Bitcoin did not reach $100,000 in 2021, and in our data peaked near $67,000 that November. Critics also note the model leaves out demand.

Charts

LookIntoBitcoin: Stock-to-Flow model

We chart S2F against price on its own page: Stock-to-Flow chart.

Rainbow Chart

Measures

Price against colored bands around a logarithmic growth curve.

Formula

Log-regression curve of price over time, with fixed-width color bands.

Creator

Popularized by Blockchaincenter, which describes its origins and says the chart is meant for fun, not as financial advice (Blockchaincenter).

Track record

The bands have been redrawn as price left the original curve, which shows the limits of fitting curves to the past.

Charts

Blockchaincenter: Rainbow Chart · LookIntoBitcoin: Rainbow Chart

Not charted here: the band curve is Blockchaincenter's own and has been redrawn over time, so we link to it rather than copy it. For a long-run log-log trend computed from public data, see our power-law chart.

Realized Price

Measures

The average price at which all coins last moved on-chain, a rough aggregate cost basis.

Formula

Realized cap ÷ circulating supply; realized cap values each coin at its price when it last moved.

Creator

Realized cap was invented by Nic Carter and Antoine Le Calvez, as credited in the MVRV article.

Track record

Lost coins stay valued at old, low prices, so realized price likely understates the active market's cost basis.

Charts

LookIntoBitcoin: Realized Price · Checkonchain charts

Hash Ribbons

Measures

Miner capitulation and recovery, from hash rate trends.

Formula

Capitulation when the 30-day SMA of hash rate falls below the 60-day SMA; the buy signal waits for recovery plus the 10-day price SMA above the 20-day.

Creator

Charles Edwards, Capriole, 2019 (Hash Ribbons & Bitcoin Bottoms).

Track record

Edwards calls it “perhaps the best performing long-term buy signal for Bitcoin” (Capriole); that is the creator's own backtested claim. Halvings and mining-ban shocks can trigger capitulation for reasons unrelated to price.

Charts

LookIntoBitcoin: Hash Ribbons

RSI (Relative Strength Index)

Measures

Short-term momentum on a 0–100 scale.

Formula

RSI = 100 − 100 ÷ (1 + RS), where RS = average gain ÷ average loss, typically over 14 periods.

Creator

J. Welles Wilder Jr., 1978 (StockCharts ChartSchool).

Track record

In strong trends RSI can stay overbought or oversold for long stretches, so 70/30 levels are not reliable turning points on their own (ChartSchool).

Funding rates

Measures

Leverage and positioning in perpetual futures.

Formula

Periodic payments between longs and shorts that keep a perpetual contract near the spot price; positive means longs pay shorts.

Creator

A mechanism of perpetual swaps, not one person's indicator (BitMEX perpetual contracts guide).

Track record

Rates vary by exchange and change every few hours; extreme readings show crowded positioning, not a reliable timing signal.

Charts

CoinGlass: Funding rates · LookIntoBitcoin: Funding rates

Not charted here: rates differ by exchange, and we found no free, keyless, openly licensed history to cache. Use the links above.